"Covid and Work - the Future Just Came Early"

Hundreds of millions have worried about the future of work since the Industrial Revolution.  Each time, concerns were somewhat assuaged by burgeoning growth of economies, especially in the West.  A protest by tailors and sewers in the mid-1800s caused quite a ruckus in New York.  Around the same time, shovelers of grain in American ports threatened to walk off the job when it appeared that coal machines could do the job faster.  By the end of that century, the threat of steam locomotives running across England had many commentators believing it would not only take tasks away from horse-drawn carriages but ruin the British economy in the process.  By the start of the Great Depression in 1930, famed economist John Maynard Keynes developed the phrase “technological unemployment” and we’ve been fighting that battle ever since.

Concern for each of these transformations inevitably dissipated as more wealth and goods flooded markets domestically and eventually transnationally.  Yet, other than that remarkable period following the Second World War, with its burgeoning growth of the middle-class, work seemed to continually fall prey to owner barons, capitalist titans, and global investors more interested in the bottom line than the welfare of workers and their communities.

We entered the new millennium with the growing cry of “wealth without work,” “the end of work,” or “work without meaning.”  It was a clearly legitimate set of complaints, as physical employment was contracted out to poor workers in developing nations and new technologies were in the process of wiping out work altogether in certain sectors.  The middle class in Europe, North America, and the larger cities of Asia began hollowing out, though it took time before the reality of it fully played out.  Suddenly, work itself seemed on the chopping block.  Money was making money and physical goods were being mass produced in poorer nations.

And then came COVID-19, effectively redefining work and the workers in the process.  This is the first Labour Day in over a century confronted by a pandemic and the stakes are enormous.  The year 2000 arrived two decades ago with the prediction that more would be working from home and then suddenly it’s happening in real time, prompted by a virus.  Put simply: the future of work that everyone was talking about arrived overnight with COVID and two premonitions came true overnight – millions were working from home and technology could go where people social distancing couldn’t.  

Only 8 years ago, just 39% of Americans worked from home; by mid-April of this year, te percentage had climbed to 62%.  These numbers are mirrored in other developed nations, like Canada.  Following six months of this new way of doing things, an interesting pattern is emerging.  Roughly two-thirds of workers are adapting well to remote working, while the rest, lacking the social stimulus that comes from teamwork and gathering together for projects, struggle with loneliness, lack of incentive, even depression.

Interestingly, the majority of employers responding to surveys report that they feel that has been an increase in productivity with remote workers.   There are problems, however.  Many managers are complaining of difficulty in maintaining high levels of productivity from workers no longer in close proximity to their fellow workers and managers. 

And then there are the work hours. For roughly a century (1840 – 1950), the length of the average workweek for manufacturing and nonsupervisory personnel dropped from 70 hours to 40.  That represented significant progress through better cooperation between workers and management and the support of unions fighting for better working conditions.  Interestingly, however, little has changed since the 1950s, as employers gained more of an upper hand in the balance of the workplace.  

And let’s be clear: those most affected by the lack of support were women, all too frequently forced to continue working to support their children and opportunities for their future.  Yet even for male workers, the chances for meaningful work, sufficient benefits, and career advancement are rapidly disappearing.  Commentators decried the debasing drudgery of such meaningless labour but the decline seemed inevitable.

And then came COVID and all bets were off.    Because the virus was about the fate of humanity itself, work had to take that reality into account.    The new work model is more human, not solely centred on technological platforms or algorithms.  Employers are now giving their workers certain discretion over their hours – a change that observers say could result in less employee turnover.

For decades, workers had been seeking less work hours in order to maintain a proper work/life balance.  In so many areas they seemed to be losing that battle, but now the pandemic has ushered in new thoughts and models, not only as a goal but a doable one.  In a time of concentrated change, things can speed up, general trends put aside, and a refocusing on what truly matters becomes possible.

COVID-19 is recalibrating our future and just might prove successful at reminding us that the future of work is people.  This Labour Day – today – is unlike anything we have ever experienced in our lifetimes.  As society moves in a general way to protect humanity from the unseen, the time might have arrived to utilize that occasion to remind us all what work was about in the first place: the meaningful and dignified use of skills to support family and community.  It is time for governments to stop strengthening the hands of large employers and to enhance the possibilities of their workers, bringing about stronger supports for the smaller and medium-sized businesses that still care about supporting the communities in which they function.  

Tomorrow starts a new work week.  Perhaps it might be something more, however – the beginning of a new work world.