Food By the Numbers

The fight against COVID-19 has become a litany of numbers – death, recoveries, infections, vaccines, hospitalizations.  It makes sense, since the math traces the development and route of the virus, enabling us to prepare for our stance against it.

What about food during this pandemic?  We don’t look at numbers so much on this front, but judge things more by the stocks on shelves.  That makes sense too, but, unlike COVID, it doesn’t tell the larger story.  Here are some numbers to consider.

The United Nations projected near the end of April that the pandemic will mean that some 265 million people could face food insecurity worldwide.  Only four months earlier (January 2020), that number stood at 135 million.  Things are getting worse.

To be clear, this isn’t just about the coronavirus and its effects on the hungry.  The greatest losses are being felt in those countries that additionally face conflict, the greatest locust infection in years and years, and the ongoing effects of climate change.  In the developing world, hunger has never been just about food, but it’s availability.  Hostile conditions, either militarily, culturally or environmentally, have meant that families, even entire villages, can’t get to their traditional food supplies because of these recurring challenges.

In many nations, the blockage to food has to do with trade policies.   In April alone, 14 countries already had food export bans in place for 20 different food products.  That had the added effects of doubling of world food prices.  Hungry families have little say over this, and mothers attempting to feed their children can hardly march into the president’s or prime minister’s office and demand the bans be lifted.  It’s fortunate that such bans have not increased since April, but their resilient presence is keeping millions from getting the nutrition they require.

As prices increase through all this, the global poor will experience even greater difficulty locating affordable food supplies.  Tens of millions have been coming up short in this search every day.

And now comes the truly tragic part.  Farmers in the world’s richest countries are forced to destroy their harvests because of the loss in demand.  When schools, hotels, hospitals, restaurants and other eating establishments are closed or partially closed, the need for such harvest dries up, leaving the grower with no choice but to eliminate the surplus.  In the United States for example, according to the New York Times, 3.7 million gallons of milk are dumped each day and 750,000 unhatched eggs are smashed every week.  The implications of this, with hundreds of millions in food insecurity across the globe, are about as sad as it gets.  And it’s all taking place while over 30 countries are facing full-blown famine.

All of this will become even more extreme in our own country as the virus lingers.  The global food chain is so integrated that one port closure in Asia, a virus outbreak in Africa, or contaminated food from South America, can weaken the entire food delivery system.  Prices will go up.  Grocery stores will scramble for sources.  And food banks will swell with demand.

If Canada grew 100% of its own food, we wouldn’t be as vulnerable, but that’s not what we have at present.  We are a significant part of a global food system that has performed remarkably well for a time, but is now more insecure than it has been in recent memory.

There is much to be done in policy, redistribution, the lifting of sanctions, and the need to stress local food growth and procurement.  These numbers aren’t a fabrication but a cautionary tale for us that how we grow, harvest, produce, transport, sell and buy our food in these coming years must change if we are to develop more stability.