They're Just Tea Leaves

I walked into the House of Commons early yesterday and ran into a couple of journalists waiting to talk to any MP they could find about their thoughts on the by-elections. It was supposed to be Michael Ignatieff's "Waterloo," according to pundits, yet the mood of the journalists was sombre at best. The election win in Winnipeg North and the slim margin of victory for star candidate Julian Fantino robbed many media types of the excitement they were seeking. As the day progressed, the quiet mood persisted.I read numerous stories about the by-elections during the day and you could sense that with the lack of drama also came a lack of imagination. In numerous ways, the by-election results were actually good news for the Liberals, but few pundits were willing to go that far. Fantino's cakewalk became something of a marathon and a Conservative MP informed me that for a while during the evening they worried they might lose it. In other words, the Liberals did better than planned, but that didn't seem to have much appeal. The Winnipeg North result should have created some stir about the fact that in a vote for the left side of the political spectrum, the Liberals grabbed the edge. But no one seemed interested in that either. For many, the results were the worst of all scenarios. Despite political and journalistic spin, the sense of political equilibrium was still largely intact and there was no sign that anyone would have to fall on their sword.By mid-afternoon you could sense something happening. Normally, no one asks me for interviews, but twice I was grabbed by the sleeve following Question Period by journalists attempting to find out just how split the Liberals were on the Afghanistan vote put forward by the Bloc and slated for the evening. This all started when someone leaked to the media that at a Liberal caucus meeting two weeks ago, MPs were ready to split over Michael Ignatieff's support for an ongoing training mission in Afghanistan following 2011. I was there for the entire meeting and no such thing transpired. To be sure, some expressed discomfort at the complexities of the decision, but there was no revolt, no threat to undermine the leader's position. But somehow the rumour by a snitch became a fact and the genie was out of the bottle. Except it wasn't. Liberals are a diverse bunch, but they understand the importance of the Afghanistan mission and the political need to stick together. As the days ensued, it became apparent that the caucus was far from split and that the difficulties individual Liberals were facing were just that - difficulties, not rebellion. I spoke with almost every member of our caucus in the last two weeks and at no point did I sense anything brewing.But some in the media maintained that the Liberals were headed for a schism. I didn't grant the interviews requested, but off the record I informed the journalists that the caucus was united, despite some misgivings. The disappointment on their faces was palpable. When the vote finally arrived, the doom prophesied by some never materialized. I was never approached by anyone in the Whip's office to vote a certain way. All was calm during the vote. In all honesty, things are steadier in the Liberal ranks than they have been for some time. The by-elections and the Afghan vote merely stabilized things further.Following Jim Prentice's retirement, I recall reading some articles about how certain MPs stay on too long and it's best for them to step aside because they are too set in their partisan opinions. I found myself wondering today if that might not also be true of some pundits. It's to the point where one can predict the slant of certain journalists even before the article is read. Some objectivity is lost in the process. With the Harper government being stubbornly stable because of the onerous discipline coming from the PMO and its lack of openness with the media, pundits concentrate more on the other parties and their difficulties. In so doing, they have lacked the imagination to truly examine the harm that has been done to democracy in the last few years and keep it enlightening for citizens. And so they concentrate on the politically vulnerable in hopes of keeping things interesting. Well, events of the last 48 hours would appear to contradict that impression. All these readings of the bottom of the political cup can't change the reality that what resides there are just tea leaves - that's all.