Attendant Risks

Following an interminable two weeks of a relentless military path that appeared to be resulting in a rout of Libyan opposition forces the international community has at last opted to act in a careful fashion - as they should. I took part in a number of media interviews yesterday in which I agreed with Prime Minister's Harper decision to send six CF-18 fighter jets to the region to assist in enforcing the no-fly zone. Canada needed to step forward following a dawdling period in which it seemed oblivious even to the request of the Arab Union for assistance. So far, so good.But everyone is petrified of what's unfolding in the skies and on the ground in Libya, no one more so than President Obama. It took some firm pressure from Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and other department officials to cause Obama to change his mind, but his concerns were understandable. It's not a part of the world anyone likes to mess with. Yet to hear Muammar el-Quaddafi talk about wiping out his own citizens with no mercy could hardly merit no response.So, we must proceed cautiously. The dangers are obvious: mission creep, rebel forces eventually resenting western intrusion, a humanitarian catastrophe, among others. At the time of this writing, France has already ordered one of its sophisticated jets into a bombing mission. And the rest of the world holds it breath, unsure of what is next. We have responded emotionally to human tragedy - an exercise of merit fraught with danger. I'm not sure we've had time as a country to digest the lessons learned from a decade-long conflict in Afghanistan. Without that discussion, coupled with solid analysis of our capabilities in the near future, we could be entering unknown territory when we aren't even sure what Canadian citizens would want.We are being assured that the present action won't require boots on the ground, but the history of the 50 years seem to imply the old rule "in for a penny, in for a pound." We were late in entering this action but we shouldn't exacerbate that with a premature rush into a broader arena of conflict. This is a sudden exercise - the developments throughout the Middle East and North Africa are, after all, only weeks old - and our further response must be examined and debated. And what if there's a standstill, with Quaddafi benching his planes but continuing the ground war? Do we just watch as the bloodshed is prolonged by another means?And there is another problem. Right now we're on the side of the rebels but that doesn't guarantee we're on the side of the angels in this conflict. Who are these rebels? Is it democracy they really aspire to or just desire to get rid of dictator? What happens when he's gone and the same rebel tribes have to accommodate and share power? We don't know the answer to that at present. We didn't comprehend Libya before the war, is our knowledge any better now? In truth, we have no answers, merely the desire to keep a people from being slaughtered. And for the moment that's good enough. But any leader of a Western nation would be foolish to proceed any farther without consulting his or her people or their respective parliaments. That's especially true of a PM who is sagging under the load of Parliamentary contempt charges and legal actions on corruption.The temptation to "get tough" in order to escape public attention of these other serious matters might well prove too compelling for Stephen Harper to ignore. We are facing the ironic crucible of going into a conflict to fight for democratic values when in fact they are under dispute at home - hardly the ethical base upon which to engage in a "just" military action.Do the people of Libya require protection? Absolutely. Is the West the best coalition to deliver that kind of military clout. Likely. Do we know what we're getting into? Not at all. The attendant risks on such a venture are of such that we aren't aware of their potential risk. So let's proceed cautiously, finding avenues through which we can afford protection to the Libyans while at the same time properly analyzing and contemplating what is the most judicious next step. The PM deserves credit for finally working with the international community on this file. It is his next step that will likely emerge that could prove his most dangerous.