A World With No Crystal Ball

What to say about the happenings in Egypt? It is one of the most remarkable developments of the last two decades. Yet the very surprise of it – the sheer speed of its unfolding – providing just as many opportunities for rapid opinion as it did for democratic developments. Now is hardly a time for irrational judgments, yet they have flooded the airwaves and coffee shops, leading to a sense of shrillness that adds to the overall fragility of the moment.Perhaps the most dangerous presumption of all has been the repeated assertion that the dam is about to burst in the Arab world, leading to a series of regime failures that could well bring about chaos around the region.It’s no doubt true that the great Arab gathering that Egypt’s first president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, envisioned now seems to be farther away than ever. Winds of change are sweeping the Arab/Muslim world and none can be sure how much of it is democratic in intention. Sudan is about to split into two countries. Yemen’s king is attempting to stave off an overthrow. King Abdullah of Jordan has replaced his prime minister, with vows to open up his government. The rather seismic political shift in Tunisia is now the stuff of front-page news.None of these countries, however, carry the stature of Egypt – the lynchpin and key peace ally of Israel in the region. “If Egypt falls,” the radical reasoning goes, “surely the other Arab nations aren’t far behind.” This is the logic of distance and isolation, but is hardly propelled by an intuitive knowledge of the region. Seasoned policy experts would tell us that democracy comes in many forms and that rather than sharing a unified culture, the Arab world’s complexities will ultimately lead it to diverse and complicated responses to political change. You can’t stereotype a region that is led by family dynasties, weak democracies, military dictatorships or even a mixture of all of these. Some are poor and landlocked, while others are staggeringly rich and open to international waters.What most Arab nations seem to share, however, is poverty. Egypt is a prime example. Despite its wealth and strategic position, it ranks 101 out of 169 countries on the United Nations Development Programme’s 2010 Human Development Index. While Mubarak himself has boasted that only 2 million of his people (out of some 80 million) live on less that $1.25 a day, he fails to mention that almost one-half of his entire population – 36 million – live on $2 a day or less. This is a glaring number, significant enough that it will live on as part of his enduring legacy, whatever the outcome of these riots. This significant blemish in Mubarak’s history is hardly singular; it is duplicated in many locations in the Arab regions. Eventually it comes back to bite you, and for the Egyptian leader it is time to pay the piper.But although the gaping distance between the fabulously rich and destitute poor is common in the region, the kinds of demands by the poorer classes for a better life are not. The responses, admittedly growing in fervour, are remarkably diverse. And it’s not all about democracy either, but also about the lust for power by some groups that could prove just as autocratic in outcome should they acquire it. In some Arab nations their leaders are still revered and stability remains the order of the day.So to offer the quick assumption that the dominoes are about set to tumble hardly smacks of experience. None of us can accurately predict how this will play out. It is a region that boasts one of the youngest populations on earth (50% of Egypt’s population is under 30). They are not only young, but intelligent and fully savvy with the newest technologies like the Internet. This is surely a recipe for change but hardly of unified disaster.For Canada the opportunities for assistance are unique. The Harper government’s response to the emerging chaos has been characteristically pedantic, even glacial, but all is not lost. Last night in an emergency debate, I sat not 10 metres away from Foreign Affairs minister Lawrence Cannon as he acknowledged that the sudden arrival of pro-Mubarak forces beating up on the protesters changes the optics and might require a more urgent response from Canada.But what to do? Besides the usual bromides of “we must offer whatever assistance we can,” or “Canada stands ready to help,” there are some defined objectives that could be achieved. The Canadian International Development Agency only spends some $20 million in Egypt annually that is largely designed to assist its economy. In light of the glaring poverty, perhaps it could shift some of those funds to direct, on-the-ground poverty alleviation. In both south Sudan and Yemen there have been direct appeals to Canada for assistance in federalism and it’s likely more will seek such direction. This country is an appealing object lesson on managing divergent regions and Minister Cannon should mobilize his diplomatic forces from their significant base in Canada to the region.The world is changing again, as it has repeatedly in our lifetime. Instead of offering simplistic observations about a complex part of the world, Canada could offer more than just the hand of friendship, but the concrete resources of diplomatic prowess and compassionate development assistance.