A November of Peril or Promise

"When chill November's surly blast make fields and forest bare."  This Robbie Burns observation comes true each year, but for Sudan the month of November might well prove to be one of the most pivotal periods in its long and bloody history. The internationally significant referendum on whether Africa's largest nation should split into two countries, set to go ahead in January, can have no legitimacy unless the developments of November proceed as scheduled. From all over the world, including here in Canada, Sudanese are in the process of registering their names in order to take part in the referendum itself. Without a viable process of identifying and validating the voter, the significant January vote will be meaningless.I've spoken often in these posts of my concern that Canada has yet to demonstrate a clear-headed plan for working with the international community to prepare for the crucial days ahead in Sudan. Those concerns were allayed somewhat last week by the testimony of Foreign Affairs and CIDA officials to our Standing Committee On Foreign Affairs and International Development. Witnesses from both departments had just returned from assessing the referendum situation and its implications for the future. It's important for all of us to know what they reported.It became clear to the officials that the referendum was likely to go ahead as planned and that the odds were it would have a peaceful outcome, at least for the near future. While concerns over the November registration process were uppermost in their minds, Canadian officials were comforted to see the identification of voters gathering significant momentum. Of greater significance to me personally was the knowledge that CIDA itself is in the process of spreading its programming in the more remote regions where the "peace dividend" had largely failed to invest the resources required to permit challenged communities to construct schools, develop programming, and build on the process of health education. The individuals appearing before the committee are a clear credit to the Canadian government's expertise and their assessment, while somewhat positive, revealed the challenges ahead if Sudan is to emerge from all of this in better condition than any time previous.All of us - regional partners, the United Nations, Western donors, private industry - simply have to get this right. The implications for Africa overall will be affected by the Sudanese referendum in ways few of us can fully determine. Artificial borders that had been drafted between north and south following the era of colonialism created unnatural divisions and unneeded tensions. Other than Eritrea, a new nation in south Sudan would be the first created since the end of the colonialism period and the implications are compelling. A hollow referendum that would see the south separate without the adequate and sustainable framework required to assist the Sudanese in embracing a new future would be an effort doomed to failure.  The West has, in recent years, shown a troubling propensity to step up assistance efforts whenever something threatens on the horizon - like this referendum itself - only to fall away and lose interest once the pivotal period has receded into memory. If that happens again in this instance, Africa will face severe challenges in its very heart.While, as the Americans and key NGOs have repeatedly voiced to me, Canada is losing the opportunity to play a unique role in providing sustenance and settlement opportunities for the hundreds of thousands of exiles in the process of returning to the south, it can hardly be said that Foreign Affairs and CIDA are doing nothing. While their investments have been more multi-lateral than strategic, Canada has nevertheless played its own part in the run-up to the referendum itself in January. Few Western nations have played their promised part in this period of Sudan's development - Canada included - but at least we are not on the sidelines looking in. It is now time for the Harper government to make clear what it is doing presently in Sudan and how it will deal with the region once the referendum is concluded. There must be a strategic plan and it must be voiced. November would be a good time for it.