Sudan - Late To The Game

Our view on Africa is about ready to face a litmus test on a massive scale.  It might turn pretty ugly, or usher in a new era of hope on a troubled continent.Africa’s largest nation of Sudan is set to launch an exercise in democracy that will remind many of the heady era of the 1960s, when numerous African nations voted for their own independence from their colonial masters.  Sudan, however, is about to vote autonomy from itself.  Properly stated, south Sudan gets to choose whether it will remain united with the north or split and found its own nation.  Part of  a comprehensive peace deal reached in 2005, following decades of civil war, a referendum is slated to take place on January 9, 2011, the outcome of which is beyond doubt: separation and independence.I spent the weekend in phone conversations with various Senators, Congressional leaders, and U.S. research analysts to gather their take on what’s likely to occur.  The Americans were the key influencers in the initial 2005 peace accord, but the Obama administration has been “late to the game” on the referendum.  Not any longer.  Suddenly seized with the importance of what is about to take place, the President is jockeying hard to get both northern and southern leaders to assist in the voting process and to peacefully accept the results of a referendum that will create the world’s newest nation.Almost everyone I spoke to expressed confusion concerning the role Canada will play in the entire process.  To a person, every elected American official I spoke to had visited Sudan – repeatedly.  Their military, Congressional support staff, even cabinet secretaries saw the situation firsthand.  But Canadian officials barely got out of the northern capital of Khartoum to assess the possibilities and pitfalls of the upcoming referendum.  That’s been fairly normal for successive Canadian governments, but at a pivotal time like this it’s hardly enough.  There have been more frequent visits to the southern capital of Juba lately, but that region hardly tells the real tale of Sudan’s challenges.On the banks of the Nile, Juba used to hold a certain rustic charm, and its struggling inhabitants had been looking forward to a better day.  Seeing the city last year, it became clear that it had turned into what the Americans termed a "refugee camp" housing almost one million people.  Western governments, United Nations organizations, and numerous NGOs opted to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into the southern capital, in the process creating a system-wide spirit of dependency.  Thousands flock to the city each week in search of food, shelter or, if they are lucky, employment.  Few outsiders thought to ask why so much energy and resources were being distributed in just one place, when the main points of tension were in fact in regional and border areas where the majority of the conflicts had occurred during the civil war.The Americans I spoke with this weekend acknowledged this mistake of misspent finances and good intentions, but have begun the process of moving out into the regions.  They fear, however, that Canada has yet to learn this lesson.Key to the concerns in the U.S. capital is the likely influx of hundreds of thousands of people from Darfur and northern Sudan itself.  Should south Sudan split off to form its own entity, the fear is now palpable that established communities will be overrun by the new arrivals and conflicts will spring up again as too many chase for too few resources.What has happened in Juba should be a lesson to us all.  Admittedly easier to invest in a capital city, the ensuing crisis developing over the burgeoning population should instruct us to dedicate funds on a more strategic basis in Sudan.  The peace dividend that resulted in 2005 barely reached the outlying regions.  The Americans, the EU, Britain and Norway are now attempting to address that oversight.  Canada, however, seems caught in some type of time warp.  Foreign Affairs, CIDA, and even some components of Defence will have to readjust quickly if they wish to be relevant in a land Canada has shown a keen interest in for two decades.  The Foreign Affairs Committee will take up the challenge starting this week – hopefully not too late.